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  • Writer's pictureDarrel Vaughn

COVID-19 ANALYTICS - Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

  • This week, CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 36 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts. Of the 36 groups, 31 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, two groups forecasted total deaths only, and three forecasted new deaths only.

  • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 11,300 to 22,600 new deaths likely reported in the week ending February 27, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 496,000 to 534,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.

  • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely decrease in 24 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

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